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Hitthaller St. Michael vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
FT
1 – 2
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
9/15/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 4Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael36%
×Draw23%
TuS Heiligenkreuz42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.63
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.15
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
2.04
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw
58%
Hitthaller St. Michael or TuS Heiligenkreuz
77%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
64%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
18%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
80%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
48%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
83%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
53%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
46%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.63

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
36%
level
23%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
42%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Hitthaller St. Michael 1–2 TuS Heiligenkreuz

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Hitthaller St. Michael 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 15, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark in Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark.