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TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Gnas — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
FT
4 – 1
Gnas
Gnas
5/10/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 26Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz51%
×Draw22%
Gnas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.93
Gnas
1.36

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 42% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Gnas
1.16

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.57
Gnas
2.00

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par
Gnas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Gnas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw
73%
TuS Heiligenkreuz or Gnas
78%
Draw or Gnas
49%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
29%
Gnas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
85%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
57%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
30%
Gnas 1+ goals
74%
Gnas 2+ goals
39%
Gnas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
65%
Gnas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Gnas away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.00 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Gnas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Gnas attack 1.16 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
51%
level
22%
Gnas scores more
27%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Gnas

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Gnas 4-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz in Heiligenkreuz am Waasen.