TuS Heiligenkreuz 5–3 Bruck an der Mur

TuS Heiligenkreuz

FT

5 – 3

Bruck an der Mur

11/14/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 13Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz55%

×Draw20%

Bruck an der Mur25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS HeiligenkreuzExpected goals in this matchBruck an der Mur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.44

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.21

Bruck an der Mur

1.44

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 53% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

1.85

creates per match

1.31

1.57

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.85

Bruck an der Mur

1.31

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.57

Bruck an der Mur

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Bruck an der Mur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw

75%

TuS Heiligenkreuz or Bruck an der Mur

80%

Draw or Bruck an der Mur

45%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

33%

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

89%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

65%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

38%

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals

76%

Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals

42%

Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

69%

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.21

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

55%

level

20%

Bruck an der Mur scores more

25%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff