TuS Haltern 1–1 Vreden: Result & Stats

TuS Haltern

FT

1 – 1

Vreden

9/5/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 2Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Haltern29%

×Draw23%

Vreden48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS HalternExpected goals in this matchVreden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.78

TuS Haltern

1.32

Vreden

1.78

Vreden creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 90 away

0.75

creates per match

1.46

2.10

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

TuS Haltern

0.75

Vreden

1.46

allows per match

TuS Haltern

2.10

Vreden

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Vreden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Vreden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw

52%

TuS Haltern or Vreden

77%

Draw or Vreden

71%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+

12%

Vreden wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals

73%

TuS Haltern 2+ goals

38%

TuS Haltern 3+ goals

15%

Vreden 1+ goals

83%

Vreden 2+ goals

53%

Vreden 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)

37%

Vreden (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Vreden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Vreden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.32

Vreden attack 1.46 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TuS Haltern scores more

29%

level

23%

Vreden scores more

48%

Vreden at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff