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TuS Haltern vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
FT
0 – 4
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
9/24/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 4Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

TuS Haltern24%
×Draw22%
Holzwickeder SC54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Haltern
1.21
Holzwickeder SC
1.91

Holzwickeder SC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

TuS Haltern
0.75
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

TuS Haltern
2.10
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw
46%
TuS Haltern or Holzwickeder SC
78%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
76%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+
10%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals
70%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
34%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
12%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
85%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
57%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
31%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

TuS Haltern scores more
24%
level
22%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
54%

Holzwickeder SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Holzwickeder SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: TuS Haltern 0–4 Holzwickeder SC

Holzwickeder SC beat TuS Haltern 4-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stauseekampfbahn in Haltern am See.