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TuS Haltern vs Finnentrop / Bamenohl — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
CANC
13:00
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
4/18/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Haltern36%
×Draw23%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Haltern
1.61
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

creates per match

TuS Haltern
0.75
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.35

allows per match

TuS Haltern
2.10
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.47

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par
Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Finnentrop / Bamenohl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw
59%
TuS Haltern or Finnentrop / Bamenohl
77%
Draw or Finnentrop / Bamenohl
64%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+
18%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals
80%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
48%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
22%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
82%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
52%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
47%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 1.35 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TuS Haltern scores more
36%
level
23%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
41%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuS Haltern face Finnentrop / Bamenohl (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with TuS Haltern hosting Finnentrop / Bamenohl. Match starts April 18, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TuS Haltern host Finnentrop / Bamenohl at Stauseekampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.