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TuS Erndtebruck vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
CANC
14:00
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
3/21/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 26Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck63%
×Draw18%
Westfalia Herne19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
2.48
Westfalia Herne
1.31

TuS Erndtebruck creates 89% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
81%
TuS Erndtebruck or Westfalia Herne
82%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
37%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
41%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
92%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
70%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
44%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
73%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
38%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
77%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.48

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
63%
level
18%
Westfalia Herne scores more
19%

TuS Erndtebruck at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "TuS Erndtebruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuS Erndtebruck vs Westfalia Herne — Match Preview

TuS Erndtebruck face Westfalia Herne on March 21, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

TuS Erndtebruck host Westfalia Herne at Pulverwaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.