TuS Erndtebruck vs TuS Haltern

TuS Erndtebruck

CANC

14:00

TuS Haltern

3/7/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 23Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck45%

×Draw22%

TuS Haltern33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS ErndtebruckExpected goals in this matchTuS Haltern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.61

TuS Erndtebruck

1.93

TuS Haltern

1.61

TuS Erndtebruck creates 20% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

1.50

creates per match

1.40

1.83

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck

1.50

TuS Haltern

1.40

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck

1.83

TuS Haltern

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

TuS Haltern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw

67%

TuS Erndtebruck or TuS Haltern

78%

Draw or TuS Haltern

55%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+

25%

TuS Haltern wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals

85%

TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals

57%

TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals

30%

TuS Haltern 1+ goals

80%

TuS Haltern 2+ goals

48%

TuS Haltern 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)

58%

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more

45%

level

22%

TuS Haltern scores more

33%

TuS Erndtebruck at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TuS Erndtebruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff