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TuS Erndtebruck vs Gievenbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
3/5/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck34%
×Draw24%
Gievenbeck42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
1.46
Gievenbeck
1.63

Gievenbeck creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 70 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Gievenbeck
1.43

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Gievenbeck
1.41

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Gievenbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
58%
TuS Erndtebruck or Gievenbeck
76%
Draw or Gievenbeck
66%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
16%
Gievenbeck wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
77%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
43%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
18%
Gievenbeck 1+ goals
80%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
48%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
45%
Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
34%
level
24%
Gievenbeck scores more
42%

Gievenbeck at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Erndtebruck vs Gievenbeck

TuS Erndtebruck and Gievenbeck drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Pulverwaldstadion in Erndtebrück.