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TuS Erndtebruck vs FC Gutersloh — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
CANC
13:00
FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
4/25/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 34Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck27%
×Draw24%
FC Gutersloh50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
1.22
FC Gutersloh
1.75

FC Gutersloh creates 43% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
FC Gutersloh
1.67

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
FC Gutersloh
0.94

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

FC Gutersloh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
50%
TuS Erndtebruck or FC Gutersloh
76%
Draw or FC Gutersloh
73%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
11%
FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
70%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
34%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
12%
FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
83%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
52%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
35%
FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

FC Gutersloh away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

FC Gutersloh attack 1.67 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
27%
level
24%
FC Gutersloh scores more
50%

FC Gutersloh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuS Erndtebruck face FC Gutersloh (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with TuS Erndtebruck hosting FC Gutersloh. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TuS Erndtebruck host FC Gutersloh at Pulverwaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.