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TuS Erndtebruck vs Delbrücker SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Delbrücker SC
Delbrücker SC
A. Attiee 73'
T. Hombach 18'
G. Kaplan 75'
P. Y. Heisinger 11'
10/23/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 11Pulverwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TuS Erndtebruck49%
×Draw21%
Delbrücker SC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Erndtebruck
2.13
Delbrücker SC
1.62

TuS Erndtebruck creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.50
Delbrücker SC
1.41

allows per match

TuS Erndtebruck
1.83
Delbrücker SC
2.76

finishing

TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par
Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Erndtebruck ↓

Delbrücker SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

TuS Erndtebruck or draw
70%
TuS Erndtebruck or Delbrücker SC
79%
Draw or Delbrücker SC
51%

Winning margin

TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
29%
Delbrücker SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
88%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
63%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
35%
Delbrücker SC 1+ goals
80%
Delbrücker SC 2+ goals
48%
Delbrücker SC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
63%
Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Erndtebruck at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Delbrücker SC away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.50 + Delbrücker SC defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.13

Delbrücker SC attack 1.41 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TuS Erndtebruck scores more
49%
level
21%
Delbrücker SC scores more
30%

TuS Erndtebruck at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TuS Erndtebruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
P. Y. Heisinger
18'
T. Hombach
73'
A. Attiee
75'
G. Kaplan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Erndtebruck vs Delbrücker SC

TuS Erndtebruck and Delbrücker SC drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 23, 2022.

Goals: P. Y. Heisinger (11'), T. Hombach (18'), A. Attiee (73'), G. Kaplan (75').

The match was played at Pulverwaldstadion in Erndtebrück.