Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TuS BW Königsdorf vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
6/9/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 29Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

TuS BW Königsdorf65%
×Draw19%
Union Schafhausen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS BW Königsdorf
2.35
Union Schafhausen
1.09

TuS BW Königsdorf creates 116% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 29 away

creates per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
2.08
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
1.22
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS BW Königsdorf ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

TuS BW Königsdorf or draw
84%
TuS BW Königsdorf or Union Schafhausen
81%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
35%

Winning margin

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
43%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
90%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
68%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
41%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
66%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
30%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
80%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS BW Königsdorf at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 2.08 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.35

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
65%
level
19%
Union Schafhausen scores more
16%

TuS BW Königsdorf at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "TuS BW Königsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: TuS BW Königsdorf 5–1 Union Schafhausen

TuS BW Königsdorf beat Union Schafhausen 5-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on June 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Königsdorf in Frechen.