TuS BW Königsdorf 1–2 Hennef 05: Result & Stats

TuS BW Königsdorf

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hennef 05

2/22/2026

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 16Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

TuS BW Königsdorf46%

×Draw22%

Hennef 0532%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS BW KönigsdorfExpected goals in this matchHennef 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.60

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.97

Hennef 05

1.60

TuS BW Königsdorf creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 81 away

2.08

creates per match

1.98

1.22

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

TuS BW Königsdorf

2.08

Hennef 05

1.98

allows per match

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.22

Hennef 05

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS BW Königsdorf ↓

Hennef 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

TuS BW Königsdorf or draw

68%

TuS BW Königsdorf or Hennef 05

78%

Draw or Hennef 05

54%

Winning margin

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+

26%

Hennef 05 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals

86%

TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals

58%

TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals

31%

Hennef 05 1+ goals

80%

Hennef 05 2+ goals

47%

Hennef 05 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)

59%

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS BW Königsdorf at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 2.08 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.97

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more

46%

level

22%

Hennef 05 scores more

32%

TuS BW Königsdorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TuS BW Königsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff