TuS BW Königsdorf 2–1 Freialdenhoven

TuS BW Königsdorf

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Freialdenhoven

8/20/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

TuS BW Königsdorf47%

×Draw22%

Freialdenhoven31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS BW KönigsdorfExpected goals in this matchFreialdenhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.48

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.88

Freialdenhoven

1.48

TuS BW Königsdorf creates 27% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 51 away

2.08

creates per match

1.75

1.22

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

TuS BW Königsdorf

2.08

Freialdenhoven

1.75

allows per match

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.22

Freialdenhoven

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS BW Königsdorf ↓

Freialdenhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

TuS BW Königsdorf or draw

69%

TuS BW Königsdorf or Freialdenhoven

78%

Draw or Freialdenhoven

53%

Winning margin

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+

26%

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals

85%

TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals

56%

TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals

29%

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

77%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

43%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)

61%

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS BW Königsdorf at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 2.08 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more

47%

level

22%

Freialdenhoven scores more

31%

TuS BW Königsdorf at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "TuS BW Königsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff