Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
CANC
13:30
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
4/18/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf38%
×Draw24%
TVD Velbert38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.60
TVD Velbert
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 72 away

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.14
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.81
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw
62%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or TVD Velbert
76%
Draw or TVD Velbert
62%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
19%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
80%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
47%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
22%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
80%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
47%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
50%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
38%
level
24%
TVD Velbert scores more
38%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs TVD Velbert — Match Preview

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf face TVD Velbert on April 18, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf host TVD Velbert at Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.