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TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
10/22/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf29%
×Draw24%
KFC Uerdingen 0546%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.27
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.66

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 53 away

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.14
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.81
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw
54%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or KFC Uerdingen 05
76%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
71%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
12%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
72%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
36%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
14%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
81%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
49%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
39%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
29%
level
24%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
46%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs KFC Uerdingen 05

KFC Uerdingen 05 beat TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 4-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Paul-Janes-Stadion in Düsseldorf.