TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 0–0 Germania Ratingen

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Germania Ratingen

2/27/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf30%

×Draw23%

Germania Ratingen48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuRU 1880 DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchGermania Ratingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.83

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.40

Germania Ratingen

1.83

Germania Ratingen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 91 away

1.14

creates per match

1.85

1.81

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.14

Germania Ratingen

1.85

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.81

Germania Ratingen

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

Germania Ratingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw

52%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or Germania Ratingen

77%

Draw or Germania Ratingen

70%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+

13%

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals

75%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals

41%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals

17%

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

84%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

54%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

38%

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more

30%

level

23%

Germania Ratingen scores more

48%

Germania Ratingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff