TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf II

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

7/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf44%

×Draw22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuRU 1880 DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.74

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.97

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

1.74

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.38

creates per match

2.22

1.25

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

2.38

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

2.22

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.25

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw

65%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or Fortuna Düsseldorf II

78%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf II

56%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals

86%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals

58%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals

31%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals

52%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

56%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 2.38 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 2.22 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more

44%

level

22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more

35%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff