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TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs FC Bocholt — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
FT
0 – 8
FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
10/11/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf15%
×Draw18%
FC Bocholt68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.04
FC Bocholt
2.43

FC Bocholt creates 134% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.14
FC Bocholt
3.05

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.81
FC Bocholt
0.95

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par
FC Bocholt+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

FC Bocholt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw
32%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or FC Bocholt
82%
Draw or FC Bocholt
85%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
5%
FC Bocholt wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
65%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
28%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
9%
FC Bocholt 1+ goals
91%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
69%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
18%
FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

FC Bocholt away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + FC Bocholt defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

FC Bocholt attack 3.05 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
15%
level
18%
FC Bocholt scores more
68%

FC Bocholt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 0–8 FC Bocholt

FC Bocholt beat TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 8-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße in Düsseldorf.