Turris 3–2 Vis Artena: Result & Stats

Turris

FT

3 – 2

Vis Artena

1/5/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 18Stadio Amerigo Liguori (Torre del Greco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turris60%

×Draw21%

Vis Artena19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TurrisExpected goals in this matchVis Artena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.07

Turris

2.05

Vis Artena

1.07

Turris creates 92% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

2.92

creates per match

1.06

1.08

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Turris

2.92

Vis Artena

1.06

allows per match

Turris

1.08

Vis Artena

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turris+0.00on par

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris ↓

Vis Artena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Turris or draw

81%

Turris or Vis Artena

79%

Draw or Vis Artena

40%

Winning margin

Turris wins by 2+

36%

Vis Artena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Turris 1+ goals

87%

Turris 2+ goals

61%

Turris 3+ goals

33%

Vis Artena 1+ goals

66%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

29%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turris (draw refunded)

76%

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris attack 2.92 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 2.05

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Turris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Turris scores more

60%

level

21%

Vis Artena scores more

19%

Turris at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff