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Turris vs Muravera — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Turris
Turris
FT
4 – 0
Muravera
Muravera
10/20/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 8Campo Sportivo Raffaele Solaro (Ercolano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turris62%
×Draw19%
Muravera19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris
2.33
Muravera
1.23

Turris creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Turris
2.92
Muravera
1.37

allows per match

Turris
1.08
Muravera
1.73

finishing

Turris+0.00on par
Muravera+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris ↓

Muravera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Turris or draw
81%
Turris or Muravera
81%
Draw or Muravera
38%

Winning margin

Turris wins by 2+
39%
Muravera wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Turris 1+ goals
90%
Turris 2+ goals
67%
Turris 3+ goals
41%
Muravera 1+ goals
71%
Muravera 2+ goals
35%
Muravera 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Turris (draw refunded)
76%
Muravera (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Muravera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris attack 2.92 + Muravera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.33

Muravera attack 1.37 + Turris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Turris scores more
62%
level
19%
Muravera scores more
19%

Turris at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turris vs Muravera

Turris beat Muravera 4-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Raffaele Solaro (Ercolano).