Turris 1–2 Latte Dolce: Result & Stats

Turris

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Latte Dolce

3/1/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 26Stadio Amerigo Liguori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turris63%

×Draw19%

Latte Dolce17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TurrisExpected goals in this matchLatte Dolce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.09

Turris

2.25

Latte Dolce

1.09

Turris creates 106% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 82 away

2.92

creates per match

1.10

1.08

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Turris

2.92

Latte Dolce

1.10

allows per match

Turris

1.08

Latte Dolce

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turris+0.00on par

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris ↓

Latte Dolce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Turris or draw

83%

Turris or Latte Dolce

81%

Draw or Latte Dolce

37%

Winning margin

Turris wins by 2+

40%

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Turris 1+ goals

89%

Turris 2+ goals

65%

Turris 3+ goals

39%

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

66%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

30%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Turris (draw refunded)

78%

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris attack 2.92 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.25

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Turris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Turris scores more

63%

level

19%

Latte Dolce scores more

17%

Turris at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff