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Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga II 2018

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
CANC
08:00
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
4/25/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele55%
×Draw25%
Dunarea Calarasi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.63
Dunarea Calarasi
0.88

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele creates 85% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

creates per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52
Dunarea Calarasi
0.80

allows per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
0.95
Dunarea Calarasi
1.73

finishing

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or draw
80%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or Dunarea Calarasi
75%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
45%

Winning margin

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
30%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
80%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
48%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
22%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
59%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
22%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
73%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.80 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
55%
level
25%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
20%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs Dunarea Calarasi — Match Preview

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele face Dunarea Calarasi on April 25, 2020 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.