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Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
CANC
09:00
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
3/21/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele47%
×Draw26%
CSM Reşiţa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.50
CSM Reşiţa
1.08

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 64 away

creates per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
0.95
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or draw
73%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or CSM Reşiţa
74%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
53%

Winning margin

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
23%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
78%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
44%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
19%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
66%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
29%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
63%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
47%
level
26%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
27%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele host CSM Reşiţa

March 21, 2020: Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele take on CSM Reşiţa in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.