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Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
CANC
09:00
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
3/13/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele59%
×Draw22%
Aerostar Bacau19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.88
Aerostar Bacau
0.96

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele creates 96% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

creates per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
0.95
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or draw
81%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or Aerostar Bacau
78%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
41%

Winning margin

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
34%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
85%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
56%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
29%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
62%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
25%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
76%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.88

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
59%
level
22%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
19%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs Aerostar Bacau — Match Preview

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele face Aerostar Bacau on March 13, 2021 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele host Aerostar Bacau at Stadionul Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.