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Turrialba Fc vs Guadalupe FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
2/20/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 7Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Turrialba Fc28%
×Draw24%
Guadalupe FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.23
Guadalupe FC
1.69

Guadalupe FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 37 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.20
Guadalupe FC
1.65

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.73
Guadalupe FC
1.27

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Guadalupe FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
52%
Turrialba Fc or Guadalupe FC
76%
Draw or Guadalupe FC
72%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
11%
Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
71%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
35%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
13%
Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
82%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
50%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
37%
Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
28%
level
24%
Guadalupe FC scores more
48%

Guadalupe FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Turrialba Fc 1–6 Guadalupe FC

Guadalupe FC beat Turrialba Fc 6-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.