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Turrialba Fc vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
2/11/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Turrialba Fc38%
×Draw24%
Cariari Pococi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.50
Cariari Pococi
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 107 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.20
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.73
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
63%
Turrialba Fc or Cariari Pococi
76%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
62%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
18%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
78%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
44%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
19%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
77%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
43%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
51%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
38%
level
24%
Cariari Pococi scores more
37%

Turrialba Fc at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Turrialba Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Turrialba Fc 1–2 Cariari Pococi

Cariari Pococi beat Turrialba Fc 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.