Turnov 1–4 Cidlina Novy Bydzov: Result & Stats

Turnov

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

3/26/2023

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 19FK Turnov UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Turnov55%

×Draw21%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TurnovExpected goals in this matchCidlina Novy Bydzov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.36

Turnov

2.13

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.36

Turnov creates 57% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 30 away

2.33

creates per match

1.30

1.43

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Turnov

2.33

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.30

allows per match

Turnov

1.43

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turnov+0.00on par

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turnov ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Turnov or draw

76%

Turnov or Cidlina Novy Bydzov

79%

Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov

45%

Winning margin

Turnov wins by 2+

33%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Turnov 1+ goals

88%

Turnov 2+ goals

63%

Turnov 3+ goals

35%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals

74%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals

39%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Turnov (draw refunded)

69%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turnov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turnov attack 2.33 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.13

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Turnov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Turnov scores more

55%

level

21%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more

24%

Turnov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Turnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff