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Turnov vs Chrudim II — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Turnov
Turnov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chrudim II
Chrudim II
5/28/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 28Městský stadion Turnov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Turnov54%
×Draw21%
Chrudim II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turnov
2.11
Chrudim II
1.37

Turnov creates 54% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Turnov
2.33
Chrudim II
1.31

allows per match

Turnov
1.43
Chrudim II
1.89

finishing

Turnov+0.00on par
Chrudim II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turnov ↓

Chrudim II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Turnov or draw
75%
Turnov or Chrudim II
79%
Draw or Chrudim II
46%

Winning margin

Turnov wins by 2+
32%
Chrudim II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Turnov 1+ goals
88%
Turnov 2+ goals
62%
Turnov 3+ goals
35%
Chrudim II 1+ goals
75%
Chrudim II 2+ goals
40%
Chrudim II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Turnov (draw refunded)
69%
Chrudim II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turnov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Chrudim II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turnov attack 2.33 + Chrudim II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Chrudim II attack 1.31 + Turnov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Turnov scores more
54%
level
21%
Chrudim II scores more
25%

Turnov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Turnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Turnov 1–2 Chrudim II

Chrudim II beat Turnov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion Turnov in Turnov.