Turku PS 3–2 PS Kemi Kings: Result & Stats

Turku PS

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

PS Kemi Kings

7/7/2018

Veikkausliiga · Round 19Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turku PS52%

×Draw25%

PS Kemi Kings22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchPS Kemi Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.94

Turku PS

1.58

PS Kemi Kings

0.94

Turku PS creates 68% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

1.35

creates per match

0.76

1.11

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Turku PS

1.35

PS Kemi Kings

0.76

allows per match

Turku PS

1.11

PS Kemi Kings

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

PS Kemi Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

78%

Turku PS or PS Kemi Kings

75%

Draw or PS Kemi Kings

48%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

27%

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

79%

Turku PS 2+ goals

47%

Turku PS 3+ goals

21%

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

61%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

24%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

70%

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.35 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.76 + Turku PS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Turku PS scores more

52%

level

25%

PS Kemi Kings scores more

22%

Turku PS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff