Turku PS 2–1 PK-35: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Turku PS

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

PK-35

J. Latonen 46'

E. Heinonen 24'

V. Salmikivi 69'

8/7/2021

Ykkönen · Round 10Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Turku PS59%

×Draw22%

PK-3520%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchPK-35

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.04

Turku PS

1.96

PK-35

1.04

Turku PS creates 88% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 27 away

1.86

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Turku PS

1.86

PK-35

1.00

allows per match

Turku PS

1.07

PK-35

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

PK-35 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

80%

Turku PS or PK-35

78%

Draw or PK-35

41%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

35%

PK-35 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

86%

Turku PS 2+ goals

58%

Turku PS 3+ goals

31%

PK-35 1+ goals

65%

PK-35 2+ goals

28%

PK-35 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

75%

PK-35 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

PK-35 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.86 + PK-35 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

PK-35 attack 1.00 + Turku PS defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Turku PS scores more

59%

level

22%

PK-35 scores more

20%

Turku PS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

46'

50'

59'

61'

J. Kinnunen← K. Taimi

63'

V. Salmikivi← M. Mäkirinne

63'

64'

69'

70'

75'

T. Lehtimäki← Y. Adam

80'

S. Atakayi← A. Muzaci

83'

R. Nevalainen← M. Hänninen

83'

N. Tirkkonen← J. Muzinga

88'

O. Jakonen← E. Heinonen

88'

E. Espinosa← J. Latonen

Turku

PK-35

1

Korkiakos

27

Koskinen

9

▼

Hänninen

19

Rahikka

2

▼

Kurvinen

21

Puro

10

▼

Mäkirinne

35

Rantanen

24

Auranen

52

▼

Muzinga

8

▼

Adam

1

Koponen

8

▼

4

6

35

14

22

2

21

⚽

▼

Heinonen

16

▼

Muzaci

23

⚽

▼

Latonen

Manager: J. Johansson

61'▲J. Kinnunen←▼K. Taimi

80'▲S. Atakayi←▼A. Muzaci

88'▲O. Jakonen←▼E. Heinonen

88'▲E. Espinosa←▼J. Latonen

Turku PS substitutes

3Kinnunen45Atakayi9Jakonen17Espinosa12Aaltonen15Benga20Karlsson

Manager: K. Raimi

63'▲V. Salmikivi←▼M. Mäkirinne

63'▲G. Ben←▼T. Kurvinen

75'▲T. Lehtimäki←▼Y. Adam

83'▲R. Nevalainen←▼M. Hänninen

83'▲N. Tirkkonen←▼J. Muzinga

PK-35 substitutes

7Salmikivi14Ben17Lehtimäki16Nevalainen18Tirkkonen12Paunio30Katashira

Ykkönen: Turku PS 2–1 PK-35

Turku PS beat PK-35 2-1 in Ykkönen on August 7, 2021.

Goals: E. Heinonen (24'), J. Latonen (46'), V. Salmikivi (69').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.

Turku PS vs PK-35 — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: Turku PS 2–1 PK-35