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PK-35 vs Turku PS — Ykkösliiga 2026

PK-35
PK-35
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Turku PS
Turku PS
6/6/2025YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Round 9Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

PK-3535%
×Draw26%
Turku PS40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-35
1.30
Turku PS
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

creates per match

PK-35
1.41
Turku PS
1.73

allows per match

PK-35
1.09
Turku PS
1.19

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw
60%
PK-35 or Turku PS
74%
Draw or Turku PS
65%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+
15%
Turku PS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals
73%
PK-35 2+ goals
37%
PK-35 3+ goals
14%
Turku PS 1+ goals
76%
Turku PS 2+ goals
41%
Turku PS 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)
47%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.41 + Turku PS defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Turku PS attack 1.73 + PK-35 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PK-35 scores more
35%
level
26%
Turku PS scores more
40%

Turku PS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PK-35 vs Turku PS

Turku PS beat PK-35 3-2 in Ykkösliiga on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.