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Turku PS vs PK-35 — Suomen Cup 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
PK-35
PK-35
2/20/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4LähiTapiola-areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turku PS14%
×Draw19%
PK-3566%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
0.90
PK-35
2.17

PK-35 creates 141% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.25
PK-35
3.77

allows per match

Turku PS
0.58
PK-35
0.54

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

PK-35 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
34%
Turku PS or PK-35
81%
Draw or PK-35
86%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
5%
PK-35 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
59%
Turku PS 2+ goals
23%
Turku PS 3+ goals
6%
PK-35 1+ goals
89%
PK-35 2+ goals
64%
PK-35 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
18%
PK-35 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

PK-35 away — creates 3.77, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.25 + PK-35 defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.90

PK-35 attack 3.77 + Turku PS defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Turku PS scores more
14%
level
19%
PK-35 scores more
66%

PK-35 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turku PS vs PK-35

Turku PS and PK-35 drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at LähiTapiola-areena in Åbo.