Turku PS 2–2 KPV-j: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Turku PS

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

KPV-j

A. Muzaci 80', 20'

W. Haapiainen 74'

J. Paananen 58'

9/30/2022

Ykkönen · Championship Round - 2Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Turku PS55%

×Draw23%

KPV-j23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchKPV-j

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.12

Turku PS

1.87

KPV-j

1.12

Turku PS creates 67% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 84 away

1.86

creates per match

1.17

1.07

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Turku PS

1.86

KPV-j

1.17

allows per match

Turku PS

1.07

KPV-j

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

KPV-j →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

77%

Turku PS or KPV-j

77%

Draw or KPV-j

45%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

31%

KPV-j wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

85%

Turku PS 2+ goals

56%

Turku PS 3+ goals

29%

KPV-j 1+ goals

67%

KPV-j 2+ goals

31%

KPV-j 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

71%

KPV-j (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

KPV-j away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.86 + KPV-j defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.87

KPV-j attack 1.17 + Turku PS defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Turku PS scores more

55%

level

23%

KPV-j scores more

23%

Turku PS at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. Ihalainen

20'

A. Muzaci

40'

J. Paananen← S. Mäkinen

58'

J. Paananen

65'

D. Savage← D. Rantanen

67'

J. Järvinen← V. Välipakka

72'

C. Sund

74'

L. Rönnberg← O. Jakonen

74'

W. Haapiainen

80'

A. Muzaci

83'

S. Lazarev

84'

P. Kytölaakso← W. Haapiainen

84'

W. Wegye← I. Yartey

90+3'

J. Jarvinen

Turku

KPV-j

33

12

21

2

5

10

15

▼

Mäkinen

71

▼

Välipakka

77

▼

Yartey

14

Kauppila

30

⚽

▼

1

3

14

29

6

22

7

▼

Rantanen

20

Karlsson

9

Roiha

16

⚽2

Muzaci

11

▼

Jakonen

Manager: J. Johansson

65'▲D. Savage←▼D. Rantanen

74'▲L. Rönnberg←▼O. Jakonen

Turku PS substitutes

10Savage17Rönnberg8Taimi12Marttinen19Pajula25Pohjolainen28Pöysä

Manager: C. Sund

40'▲J. Paananen←▼S. Mäkinen

67'▲J. Järvinen←▼V. Välipakka

84'▲P. Kytölaakso←▼W. Haapiainen

84'▲W. Wegye←▼I. Yartey

KPV-j substitutes

11Paananen13Järvinen7Kytölaakso9Wegye20Pietsalo24Rintala1Seppä

Turku PS 2 – 2 KPV-j

Turku PS and KPV-j drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on September 30, 2022.

Goals: A. Muzaci (20', 80'), J. Paananen (58'), W. Haapiainen (74').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.

Turku PS vs KPV-j — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Turku PS 2 – 2 KPV-j