Turku PS 4–1 KäPa: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Turku PS

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

KäPa

U. Muhammed 84' (pen), 65', 59'

K. Hämäläinen 28'

I. Kärsämä 90'

6/8/2023

Ykkönen · Round 9Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Turku PS57%

×Draw21%

KäPa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchKäPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.25

Turku PS

2.11

KäPa

1.25

Turku PS creates 69% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

1.43

1.07

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Turku PS

1.86

KäPa

1.43

allows per match

Turku PS

1.07

KäPa

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

KäPa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

78%

Turku PS or KäPa

79%

Draw or KäPa

43%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

34%

KäPa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

88%

Turku PS 2+ goals

62%

Turku PS 3+ goals

35%

KäPa 1+ goals

71%

KäPa 2+ goals

36%

KäPa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

72%

KäPa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.86 + KäPa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.11

KäPa attack 1.43 + Turku PS defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Turku PS scores more

57%

level

21%

KäPa scores more

22%

Turku PS at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

20'

28'

38'

38'

J. Aluja

59'

U. Muhammed

64'

M. Söderbäck← J. Kinnunen

64'

J. Salmi← N. Heikurinen

65'

U. Muhammed

68'

I. Lappalainen

70'

R. Riski

72'

T. Ali-Abubakar← A. Gero

74'

D. Rantanen← S. Pohjolainen

74'

C. Lönnqvist← P. Forsman

74'

T. Valakari← K. Larsson

74'

I. Kärsämä← T. Lahdensuo

75'

T. Pippola← K. Hämäläinen

84'

U. MuhammedPenalty

85'

O. Pajula← Riku Riski

86'

S. Pöysä← M. Kivikko

90'

I. Kärsämä

Turku

KäPa

1

Nokelaine

77

▼

16

4

5

3

▼

Heikurine

8

▼

Forsman

11

Tammivuor

28

Kekaraine

22

▼

Larsson

27

▼

1

3

2

14

4

▼

Kivikko

13

⚽3

Muhammed

22

⚽

▼

Hämäläine

6

Karlsson

25

▼

Pohjolain

10

▼

Riski

9

▼

Gero

Manager: M. Rajamäki

72'▲T. Ali-Abubakar←▼A. Gero

74'▲D. Rantanen←▼S. Pohjolainen

75'▲T. Pippola←▼K. Hämäläinen

85'▲O. Pajula←▼Riku Riski

86'▲S. Pöysä←▼M. Kivikko

Turku PS substitutes

20Ali-Abubakar7Rantanen23Pippola19Pajula18Pöysä12Hakanpää28Boström

Manager: Jordi Aluja

64'▲M. Söderbäck←▼J. Kinnunen

64'▲J. Salmi←▼N. Heikurinen

74'▲C. Lönnqvist←▼P. Forsman

74'▲T. Valakari←▼K. Larsson

74'▲I. Kärsämä←▼T. Lahdensuo

KäPa substitutes

10Söderbäck29Salmi17Lönnqvist18Valakari23Kärsämä12Pulkkinen21Piispa

Turku PS 4 – 1 KäPa

Turku PS beat KäPa 4-1 in Ykkönen on June 8, 2023.

Goals: K. Hämäläinen (28'), U. Muhammed (59', 65', 84' pen), I. Kärsämä (90').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.

Turku PS vs KäPa — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Turku PS 4 – 1 KäPa