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KäPa vs Turku PS — Ykkösliiga 2026

KäPa
KäPa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Turku PS
Turku PS
7/6/2024YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Round 14Kallio TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

KäPa29%
×Draw23%
Turku PS48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KäPa
1.41
Turku PS
1.85

Turku PS creates 31% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 26 away

creates per match

KäPa
1.63
Turku PS
1.73

allows per match

KäPa
1.97
Turku PS
1.19

finishing

KäPa+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KäPa ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

KäPa or draw
52%
KäPa or Turku PS
77%
Draw or Turku PS
71%

Winning margin

KäPa wins by 2+
13%
Turku PS wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

KäPa 1+ goals
76%
KäPa 2+ goals
41%
KäPa 3+ goals
17%
Turku PS 1+ goals
84%
Turku PS 2+ goals
55%
Turku PS 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

KäPa (draw refunded)
38%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KäPa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.97 · 35 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KäPa attack 1.63 + Turku PS defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Turku PS attack 1.73 + KäPa defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KäPa scores more
29%
level
23%
Turku PS scores more
48%

Turku PS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkösliiga: KäPa 0–0 Turku PS

KäPa and Turku PS drew 0-0 in Ykkösliiga on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kallio TN in Helsinki.