Turku PS 2–3 JäPS: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

Turku PS

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

JäPS

R. Sjöroos 90'

U. Muhammed 80'

V. Ahola 41' (pen), 32'

S. Tukiainen 29'

9/27/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 25Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Turku PS51%

×Draw21%

JäPS28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchJäPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.50

Turku PS

2.10

JäPS

1.50

Turku PS creates 40% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

2.18

creates per match

1.47

1.54

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Turku PS

2.18

JäPS

1.47

allows per match

Turku PS

1.54

JäPS

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

JäPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

72%

Turku PS or JäPS

79%

Draw or JäPS

49%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

30%

JäPS wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

88%

Turku PS 2+ goals

62%

Turku PS 3+ goals

35%

JäPS 1+ goals

78%

JäPS 2+ goals

44%

JäPS 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

65%

JäPS (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 2.18 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.10

JäPS attack 1.47 + Turku PS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Turku PS scores more

51%

level

21%

JäPS scores more

28%

Turku PS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

S. Tukiainen

32'

V. Ahola

35'

O. Haggstrom

40'

A. Sihvonen

41'

V. AholaPenalty

43'

O. Jama

46'

J. Lakkamäki← E. Collin

46'

A. Ulmanen← M. Toure

60'

R. Riski← T. Pippola

60'

U. Muhammed← E. Pitkälä

64'

A. Ristola← V. Ahola

64'

J. Holopainen← S. Tukiainen

73'

T. Järvinen← A. Hellemaa

73'

N. Kaijasilta← O. Jama

78'

T. Arminen← M. Rautiola

80'

U. Muhammed

81'

L. Ikonen← A. Boström

90+4'

O. Haggstrom

90+4'

O. Haggstrom

90'

R. Sjöroos

Turku

JäPS

1

Laiho

30

Mabinda

2

Palmasto

26

▼

4

3

14

6

▼

Jama

10

⚽2

▼

Ahola

13

▼

Hellemaa

11

⚽

▼

Tukiainen

12

Hakanpää

5

Pakkanen

3

▼

2

17

6

18

▼

Pitkälä

22

▼

Boström

20

⚽

Sjöroos

19

▼

Pippola

28

▼

Toure

Manager: M. Nuutinen

46'▲J. Lakkamäki←▼E. Collin

46'▲A. Ulmanen←▼M. Toure

60'▲R. Riski←▼T. Pippola

60'▲U. Muhammed←▼E. Pitkälä

81'▲L. Ikonen←▼A. Boström

Turku PS substitutes

14Lakkamäki23Ulmanen10Riski11Muhammed26Ikonen1Niemelä13Mensah

Manager: T. Kankkunen

64'▲A. Ristola←▼V. Ahola

64'▲J. Holopainen←▼S. Tukiainen

73'▲T. Järvinen←▼A. Hellemaa

73'▲N. Kaijasilta←▼O. Jama

78'▲T. Arminen←▼M. Rautiola

JäPS substitutes

9Ristola21Holopainen22Järvinen77Kaijasilta5Arminen16Autio31Tiainen

Match Recap: Turku PS vs JäPS

JäPS beat Turku PS 3-2 in Ykkösliiga on September 27, 2024.

Goals: S. Tukiainen (29'), V. Ahola (32', 41' pen), U. Muhammed (80'), R. Sjöroos (90').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.

Turku PS vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Turku PS vs JäPS