Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Turku PS vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinkiadvanced
6/23/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Quarter-finalsVeritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turku PS22%
×Draw25%
HJK Helsinki54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
0.92
HJK Helsinki
1.61

HJK Helsinki creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.25
HJK Helsinki
2.65

allows per match

Turku PS
0.58
HJK Helsinki
0.59

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
46%
Turku PS or HJK Helsinki
75%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
78%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
7%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
60%
Turku PS 2+ goals
23%
Turku PS 3+ goals
7%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
80%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
48%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
29%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.25 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.92

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + Turku PS defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Turku PS scores more
22%
level
25%
HJK Helsinki scores more
54%

HJK Helsinki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Turku PS 0–1 HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat Turku PS 1-0 in Suomen Cup on June 23, 2020.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.