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Turku PS vs AC Kajaani — Ykkönen 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
9/6/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 12Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Turku PS54%
×Draw21%
AC Kajaani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
2.06
AC Kajaani
1.34

Turku PS creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 39 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.93
AC Kajaani
1.64

allows per match

Turku PS
1.04
AC Kajaani
2.18

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
75%
Turku PS or AC Kajaani
79%
Draw or AC Kajaani
46%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
32%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
87%
Turku PS 2+ goals
61%
Turku PS 3+ goals
34%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
74%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
39%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
68%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.04 · 56 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.93 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.06

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + Turku PS defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Turku PS scores more
54%
level
21%
AC Kajaani scores more
25%

Turku PS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: Turku PS 3–0 AC Kajaani

Turku PS beat AC Kajaani 3-0 in Ykkönen on September 6, 2019.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo)).