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Türkspor Dortmund vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
5/19/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Türkspor Dortmund46%
×Draw21%
SG Wattenscheid 0933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkspor Dortmund
2.02
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.68

Türkspor Dortmund creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 70 away

creates per match

Türkspor Dortmund
2.54
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.76

allows per match

Türkspor Dortmund
1.60
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.51

finishing

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par
SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Dortmund ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Türkspor Dortmund or draw
67%
Türkspor Dortmund or SG Wattenscheid 09
79%
Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09
54%

Winning margin

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
26%
SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
87%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
60%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
33%
SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
81%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
50%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
58%
SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Dortmund at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Dortmund attack 2.54 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.02

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Türkspor Dortmund scores more
46%
level
21%
SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
33%

Türkspor Dortmund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Türkspor Dortmund 4–2 SG Wattenscheid 09

Türkspor Dortmund beat SG Wattenscheid 09 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2 in Dortmund.