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Türkspor Dortmund vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
2/24/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Türkspor Dortmund46%
×Draw21%
Preußen Münster II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkspor Dortmund
2.02
Preußen Münster II
1.66

Türkspor Dortmund creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 88 away

creates per match

Türkspor Dortmund
2.54
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

Türkspor Dortmund
1.60
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Dortmund ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Türkspor Dortmund or draw
68%
Türkspor Dortmund or Preußen Münster II
79%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
54%

Winning margin

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
26%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
87%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
60%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
33%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
81%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
49%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
59%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Dortmund at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Dortmund attack 2.54 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.02

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Türkspor Dortmund scores more
46%
level
21%
Preußen Münster II scores more
32%

Türkspor Dortmund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Türkspor Dortmund vs Preußen Münster II

Türkspor Dortmund beat Preußen Münster II 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2 in Dortmund.