Türkspor Dortmund 2–0 Erkenschwick: Result & Stats

Türkspor Dortmund

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Erkenschwick

8/24/2025

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Türkspor Dortmund53%

×Draw20%

Erkenschwick27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Türkspor DortmundExpected goals in this matchErkenschwick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.54

Türkspor Dortmund

2.23

Erkenschwick

1.54

Türkspor Dortmund creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

2.54

creates per match

1.47

1.60

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Türkspor Dortmund

2.54

Erkenschwick

1.47

allows per match

Türkspor Dortmund

1.60

Erkenschwick

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par

Erkenschwick+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Dortmund ↓

Erkenschwick →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Türkspor Dortmund or draw

73%

Türkspor Dortmund or Erkenschwick

80%

Draw or Erkenschwick

47%

Winning margin

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+

32%

Erkenschwick wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals

89%

Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals

65%

Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals

38%

Erkenschwick 1+ goals

79%

Erkenschwick 2+ goals

45%

Erkenschwick 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)

67%

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Dortmund at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Erkenschwick away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Dortmund attack 2.54 + Erkenschwick defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.23

Erkenschwick attack 1.47 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Türkspor Dortmund scores more

53%

level

20%

Erkenschwick scores more

27%

Türkspor Dortmund at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff