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Türkspor Dortmund vs Ennepetal — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ennepetal
Ennepetal
9/17/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 6Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Türkspor Dortmund57%
×Draw20%
Ennepetal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkspor Dortmund
2.34
Ennepetal
1.47

Türkspor Dortmund creates 59% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 88 away

creates per match

Türkspor Dortmund
2.54
Ennepetal
1.33

allows per match

Türkspor Dortmund
1.60
Ennepetal
2.14

finishing

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par
Ennepetal+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Dortmund ↓

Ennepetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Türkspor Dortmund or draw
76%
Türkspor Dortmund or Ennepetal
80%
Draw or Ennepetal
43%

Winning margin

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
35%
Ennepetal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
90%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
67%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
41%
Ennepetal 1+ goals
77%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
43%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
70%
Ennepetal (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Dortmund at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Ennepetal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Dortmund attack 2.54 + Ennepetal defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.34

Ennepetal attack 1.33 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Türkspor Dortmund scores more
57%
level
20%
Ennepetal scores more
24%

Türkspor Dortmund at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Türkspor Dortmund 1–2 Ennepetal

Ennepetal beat Türkspor Dortmund 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2 in Dortmund.