Türkspor Augsburg 4–0 Nordlingen: Result & Stats

Türkspor Augsburg

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Nordlingen

7/31/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 3Bezirkssportanlage Haunstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Türkspor Augsburg32%

×Draw22%

Nordlingen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Türkspor AugsburgExpected goals in this matchNordlingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.94

Türkspor Augsburg

1.58

Nordlingen

1.94

Nordlingen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

1.14

creates per match

1.95

1.94

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Türkspor Augsburg

1.14

Nordlingen

1.95

allows per match

Türkspor Augsburg

1.94

Nordlingen

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Türkspor Augsburg+0.00on par

Nordlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Augsburg ↓

Nordlingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Türkspor Augsburg or draw

54%

Türkspor Augsburg or Nordlingen

78%

Draw or Nordlingen

68%

Winning margin

Türkspor Augsburg wins by 2+

15%

Nordlingen wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Türkspor Augsburg 1+ goals

79%

Türkspor Augsburg 2+ goals

47%

Türkspor Augsburg 3+ goals

21%

Nordlingen 1+ goals

86%

Nordlingen 2+ goals

58%

Nordlingen 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Augsburg (draw refunded)

41%

Nordlingen (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Augsburg at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

Nordlingen away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Augsburg attack 1.14 + Nordlingen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nordlingen attack 1.95 + Türkspor Augsburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Türkspor Augsburg scores more

32%

level

22%

Nordlingen scores more

46%

Nordlingen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nordlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff