Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Türkiye vs Rep. Of Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Türkiye
Türkiye
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
3/23/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Antalya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Türkiye53%
×Draw27%
Rep. Of Ireland20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.44
Rep. Of Ireland
0.76

Türkiye creates 89% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.71
Rep. Of Ireland
0.73

allows per match

Türkiye
0.79
Rep. Of Ireland
1.18

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
80%
Türkiye or Rep. Of Ireland
73%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
47%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
27%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
76%
Türkiye 2+ goals
42%
Türkiye 3+ goals
18%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
53%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
18%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
73%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.71 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Türkiye defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Türkiye scores more
53%
level
27%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
20%

Türkiye at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Türkiye 1–0 Rep. Of Ireland

Türkiye beat Rep. Of Ireland 1-0 in Friendlies on March 23, 2018.

The match was played at Antalya Stadyumu in Antalya.