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Türkiye vs Northern Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Türkiye
Türkiye
CANC
18:45
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
5/31/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Antalya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Türkiye54%
×Draw24%
Northern Ireland22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.66
Northern Ireland
0.96

Türkiye creates 73% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.71
Northern Ireland
1.13

allows per match

Türkiye
0.79
Northern Ireland
1.60

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
78%
Türkiye or Northern Ireland
76%
Draw or Northern Ireland
46%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
29%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
81%
Türkiye 2+ goals
49%
Türkiye 3+ goals
23%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
62%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
25%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
71%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.71 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Türkiye defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Türkiye scores more
54%
level
24%
Northern Ireland scores more
22%

Türkiye at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye vs Northern Ireland — Match Preview

Türkiye face Northern Ireland on May 31, 2021 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Türkiye host Northern Ireland at Antalya Atatürk Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.