Türkiye 4–2 Netherlands: Result & Stats

Türkiye

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Netherlands

B. Yılmaz 81', 34' (pen), 15'

H. Çalhanoğlu 46'

L. de Jong 76'

D. Klaassen 75'

3/24/2021

League #32 · Group Stage - 1Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Türkiye64%

×Draw17%

Netherlands19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TürkiyeExpected goals in this matchNetherlands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.50

Türkiye

2.83

Netherlands

1.50

Türkiye creates 89% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

3.33

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Türkiye

3.33

Netherlands

2.00

allows per match

Türkiye

1.00

Netherlands

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par

Netherlands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Netherlands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw

81%

Türkiye or Netherlands

83%

Draw or Netherlands

36%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+

44%

Netherlands wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals

94%

Türkiye 2+ goals

77%

Türkiye 3+ goals

53%

Netherlands 1+ goals

78%

Netherlands 2+ goals

44%

Netherlands 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)

77%

Netherlands (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Netherlands away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 3.33 + Netherlands defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Netherlands attack 2.00 + Türkiye defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Türkiye scores more

64%

level

17%

Netherlands scores more

19%

Türkiye at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

B. Yılmaz

Türkiye · F

9.2

Match Events

15'

B. Yılmaz↳ H. Çalhanoğlu

32'

Kenan Karaman

34'

B. YılmazPenalty

36'

Ozan Tufan

46'

H. Çalhanoğlu↳ U. Meraş

50'

Georginio Wijnaldum

52'

Burak Yılmaz

62'

L. de Jong← M. de Roon

64'

C. Erkin← Y. Yazıcı

64'

T. Antalyalı← O. Tufan

69'

D. Dumfries← K. Tete

69'

D. Klaassen← D. Malen

72'

Cengiz Umut Meraş

75'

D. Klaassen↳ M. Depay

76'

L. de Jong

78'

E. Ünal← H. Çalhanoğlu

79'

K. Ayhan← K. Karaman

81'

B. Yılmaz

82'

R. Gravenberch← D. Blind

82'

P. van Aanholt← O. Wijndal

90+4'

Ozan Kabak

90'

D. Türüç← B. Yılmaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TürkiyeNetherlands

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots20

3Corners11

18Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots20

5On Target9

2Off Target6

1Blocked5

3Inside Box11

5Outside Box9

Passing

34%Possession66%

334Total Passes633

247Accurate Passes550

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls12

5Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1