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Türkiye vs Lithuania — UEFA Nations League 2018

Türkiye
Türkiye
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lithuania
Lithuania
6/14/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 4Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Türkiye60%
×Draw23%
Lithuania17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.80
Lithuania
0.85

Türkiye creates 112% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.83
Lithuania
0.62

allows per match

Türkiye
1.08
Lithuania
1.77

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
83%
Türkiye or Lithuania
77%
Draw or Lithuania
40%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
34%
Lithuania wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
83%
Türkiye 2+ goals
54%
Türkiye 3+ goals
27%
Lithuania 1+ goals
57%
Lithuania 2+ goals
21%
Lithuania 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
77%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.83 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.80

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Türkiye defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Türkiye scores more
60%
level
23%
Lithuania scores more
17%

Türkiye at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Türkiye vs Lithuania

Türkiye beat Lithuania 2-0 in UEFA Nations League on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.