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Türkiye vs Italy — Euro Championship 2020

Türkiye
Türkiye
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Italy
Italy
6/11/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Group A - 1Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Türkiye24%
×Draw25%
Italy51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.05
Italy
1.65

Italy creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.40
Italy
2.20

allows per match

Türkiye
1.10
Italy
0.70

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Italy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Italy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
49%
Türkiye or Italy
75%
Draw or Italy
76%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
9%
Italy wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
65%
Türkiye 2+ goals
28%
Türkiye 3+ goals
9%
Italy 1+ goals
81%
Italy 2+ goals
49%
Italy 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
32%
Italy (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Italy away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.40 + Italy defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

Italy attack 2.20 + Türkiye defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Türkiye scores more
24%
level
25%
Italy scores more
51%

Italy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Euro Championship: Türkiye 0–3 Italy

Italy beat Türkiye 3-0 in Euro Championship on June 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.