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Türkiye vs Greece — Friendlies 2026

Türkiye
Türkiye
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Greece
Greece
5/30/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Antalya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Türkiye50%
×Draw26%
Greece24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.49
Greece
0.93

Türkiye creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.71
Greece
1.07

allows per match

Türkiye
0.79
Greece
1.27

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Greece+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Greece →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
76%
Türkiye or Greece
74%
Draw or Greece
50%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
25%
Greece wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
77%
Türkiye 2+ goals
44%
Türkiye 3+ goals
19%
Greece 1+ goals
61%
Greece 2+ goals
24%
Greece 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
68%
Greece (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Greece away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.71 + Greece defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Greece attack 1.07 + Türkiye defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Türkiye scores more
50%
level
26%
Greece scores more
24%

Türkiye at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Türkiye vs Greece

Türkiye beat Greece 2-1 in Friendlies on May 30, 2019.

The match was played at Antalya Stadyumu in Antalya.